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• WAC '08: It should be Boise vs. Fresno atop league

  
  

  by Jeff Frank, Sports Analyst Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The WAC had an off year in 2007, winning just one of four bowl games both SU and ATS. A far cry from the 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS marks back in '06.

  Overall, the league won only eight of 31 FBS out-of-conference matchups (12-19 ATS) as opposed to its 14-21 SU record two seasons ago (18-17 ATS). Take away Fresno State, and the other eight clubs ended up 9-18 ATS outside the league and 4-11 ATS vs. BCS schools.

  Amazingly enough, the Bulldogs have never won the WAC title, but have an excellent chance this year as 17 starters return to a team that rolled over Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl. Nevertheless, their season finale is a date in Boise and the Broncos have won the last three meetings on the blue turf by an average score of 48-19.

  Every team, with the exception of Hawaii, should be a tougher opponent this year, so it's doubtful a club will finish the regular season undefeated in league play. With that in mind, it's time to run down how the nine squads will finish in '08: 1-T) BOISE STATE (100-1 to win the BCS National Championship) - The Broncos finished 10-3 but ended the season with consecutive losses for the first time in 14 years.

  Offense - There will be a new signal-caller under center this season, as Taylor Tharp leaves after throwing 30 TD passes. However, the Broncos' ppg average has increased the last two times they brought in a fresh starting QB. Running back Ian Johnson is as healthy as ever and should break 1,000 yards once again despite an inexperienced line that brings back just 26 career starts - all from one player.

  Defense - Boise's run defense ranked 35th in the country, but the unit allowed its most yards per game in a season since 2000. On the other hand, take away the Nevada and East Carolina games, and the ypg average drops from 131 to 89. With seven starters coming back, the "D" will remain strong.

  Outlook - It might take a while for the o-line to jell, but once it does, look for Boise to win six league games, including the key matchup over Fresno on November 28. The Broncos are 17-6 ATS as a home favorite the last four years.

  1-T) FRESNO STATE - The Bulldogs roared back with a nine-win campaign after suffering through their worst season (4-8) since 1998.

  Offense - Fresno capped off '07 by racking up 571 yards and 40 points vs. Georgia Tech in its bowl win. Quarterback Tim Brandstater came of age late in his junior year, completing 68% while throwing for 1,000 yards with a 6-1 TD/INT ratio in his last four games.

  Defense - "Bend but don't break" was the "D's" motto last season, as the unit ranked seventh in league play in total defense but second in scoring. The Bulldogs have just nine picks the last two years (last in the nation) but those numbers should improve this year with three starters from the secondary coming back.

  Outlook - Pat Hill's faith in Brandstater will pay off as Fresno should battle for the league title all season long. Look for a 6-2 conference record, but the Bulldogs will fall a tad short. They are 19-8 ATS off a SU win the last four years, but 5-22-1 the last six seasons off a SU loss.

  3-T) NEVADA - The Wolf Pack have seen their win total decrease in each of the last three seasons despite going bowling all three years.

  Offense - Nevada averaged 39 ppg in its eight WAC matchups, outgaining even Boise in league play. Sophomore QB Colin Kaepernick (19-3 TD/INT ratio) and RB Luke Lippincott (1,420 yards and 18 TDs) are two of eight returning starters ready to lead the conference in scoring and total offense.

  Defense - After finishing first in league play in scoring defense two years back, the Wolf Pack fell to seventh place in an injury-plagued campaign. The unit did not have the same starting lineup until the final two games of the regular season. Five of the top eight tacklers are gone, but the coaching staff has filled the slots with experienced junior college transfers.

  Outlook - Nevada will never compete for the league title until it can beat the big boys. The Wolf Pack are 1-16 the last 17 meetings vs. Fresno State and Boise State. Expect a 5-3 conference mark and don't forget to bet on them in Reno as they are 13-2 as a home favorite the last four seasons.

  3-T) LOUISIANA TECH - Recent top-notch recruiting classes have the folks in Ruston psyched for a breakout season.

  Offense - A pair of transfers (Steve Ensminger - Auburn) and (Taylor Bennett - Georgia Tech) will compete for the starting quarterback spot and whoever wins the #1 job should put up better numbers than outgoing QB Zac Champion. The Bulldogs own the most underrated core of receivers in the league and RB Patrick Jackson is easily capable of reaching the 1,000-yard mark.

  Defense - Tech lowered its scoring defense by a whopping 11 points per game last year, an exceptional number considering the rules changes prior to the season.

  The Bulldogs ended the '06 campaign last in WAC play in scoring and rushing defense, but improved to fifth in scoring and first in rushing.

  Outlook - Derek Dooley's squad was one of the most improved teams in the country last year and that trend will continue in '08 with a 5-3 conference mark and an above .500 record overall. The Bulldogs are 5-18 as an away dog the last four years.

  3-T) SAN JOSE STATE - Last season was a down one for the Spartans as they went from 9-4 and a bowl victory to a .500 conference mark and 5-7 overall.

  Offense - The prospects for an improved year hinges on whether or not RB Yonus Davis is granted a sixth-year of eligibility. The former 1,000-yard rusher was limited to three carries last season, and San Jose State ended up 112th in the country averaging 84 ypg.

  Defense - The Spartans lost three of their top four tacklers last year and still finished third in league play in scoring defense. The unit must come together once again, as the school's top three tacklers from '07 depart. Nevertheless, two key transfers are in the fold as former USC defensive end Jeff Schweiger and Oregon State corner Coye Francis come to San Jose.

  Outlook - Coach Dick Tomey has reloaded his team with exceptional Pac-10 talent, so look for the Spartans to be competitive on a weekly basis. A 5-3 conference mark is not out of the question. San Jose State is 5-0 as a home dog the last two seasons.

  6) HAWAII - The Warriors will regress more than any other FBS team, going from 12 victories all the way down to five or six.

  Offense - It will be a revamped offense in Honolulu. Not only does Colt Brennan say goodbye, but 80% of the team's receptions are gone as well. In addition, last year's five offensive linemen started every single game and three of them have moved on.

  Defense - The Warriors had one of their better defenses in recent memory last year, allowing 25.5 ppg. However, two of their 13 games were against FCS schools and five more came vs. clubs that failed to average 22 ppg. Imagine how the unit will fare in '08 with just four of its top 10 tacklers back.

  Outlook - June Jones picked the right time to leave Hawaii. The Warriors will be lucky to win four league matchups. Remember, even though they went 12-1 last year, they only covered four of their 11 board games.

  7) NEW MEXICO STATE - A lot more was expected last season than four wins - only two against FBS schools. In order to turn things around, the Aggies must improve their fourth quarter play after getting outscored 153-68 in the final stanza a year ago.

  Offense - Only three teams in the country ran fewer plays per game last season The Aggies also averaged a TD less per game than the year before, but the last time their "O" sputtered, they erupted for a 14-point improvement the following season. Seven starters return, including QB Chase Holbrook, so look for a bounce-back campaign.

  Defense - The defensive line was decimated by graduation, so it might be difficult for the unit to improve off its last place run-stuffing finish in WAC play last year. Hal Mumme brings in Joe Lee Dunn as his new coordinator and as a result, the secondary will be more of a force as the Aggies switch to a 3-3-5 defense Outlook - New Mexico State held steady at 4-4 after eight games, but lost its final five and ended up 1-7 in conference play. A 3-5 league mark will not please the fans, though it will give the club something to build on for '09. The Aggies are 4-12 as an away dog under Mumme.

  8) UTAH STATE - Brent Guy's club enjoyed its first two-game winning streak since 2003 with road victories over New Mexico State and Idaho to end the season.

  Offense - Losing quarterback Leon Jackson leaves a huge hole in the offense. His 132 QB rating was the team's best since 1979 for QBs with over 100 attempts, and his 65% completion rate was tops in school history. It will be extremely difficult to match last year's 20.6-ppg average and the 81% red zone efficiency rating with a new quarterback.

  Defense - Nine of the top 10 tacklers return to a unit that finished sixth in WAC play in scoring defense. It was the team's highest league ranking since joining the conference in 2005. The "D" will be even better in '08 with the addition of two linemen - Magnum Mauga and Casey Davis.

  Outlook - Utah State went through the entire '06 season without ever leading a game in the fourth quarter. Last year, the Aggies led in six of the 12 contests, but won just two. Look for similar results in '08. Utah State is 2-7 as a home dog the last two seasons.

  9) IDAHO - The Vandals won only one game in Robb Akey's first season at the helm, dropping three games off the 4-8 mark set in 2006.

  Offense - Running back Deonte Jackson was the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal offensive year. The sophomore, who rushed for 1,175 yards on 4.9 ypc, is one of 10 returning starters from a unit that finished last in conference play with just 20.6 ppg. In addition, Nathan Enderle was the only quarterback in the league with a QB rating below 100.

  Defense - It will be a huge task for Idaho to improve a defense that ranked 110th in the nation allowing 37 ppg, especially with five of its top six tacklers departing.

  Outlook - The Vandals own a 16-game losing streak against FBS competition (0-13 in the WAC) and it's very possible that run will continue into 2009. They are 2-13 the last two years off a SU loss.

  07/21 12:56:04 ET